With the regular MLB season right around the corner, it's time to put together an article about how to make profitable bets on this sport. Baseball has always been one of our most profitable sports to wager on as it can present a lot of opportunities for the bettor who's paying attention.
Why can baseball be so profitable?
For one, there's plenty of games to choose from. Almost everyday you have ten or so game to bet on. It's a numbers game – the more choices there are, the more chances you can find a good opportunity.
The sheer number of games also makes it harder for bookmakers to accurately set a line for each game. There are times when the line will swing drastically as the original line was simply off the mark. They have less times to spend making lines for each individual game which increase your chance of finding a betting line you can exploit.
Second, the odds are typically very tight to begin with. Make sure you deal with a bookmaker that offers a "ten cent line" – this will improve your wins and minimize your loses.
Here's an example of a 10 cent line:
While a 20 cent line on the same game would look like:
As you can see, the ten cent gives you a better payout whether you're betting on the dog or the favorite. Make sure you're betting with someone who offers it.
These tight odds make the "house hold" – the mathematical percentage of betting volume that the sportsbook should win – quite low compared to other sports.
Here's a couple of things we look closely at when betting on bases:
1) Pitching, Pitching, Pitching!
You might think this is obvious, but the first thing we always look at is who's on the mound for each team. You've been surprised by how many people severely pay any attention to this – they just look at the teams and make their choice.
But pitching is key, and sometimes you can find some unbelievable situations where all the numbers and trends point to one pitcher.
As an example (and this is just one of many), certain pitchers will dominate against left handed batters while being only average agaist right handed hitters. If they are facing a squad with an above average number of left handed hitters, that's going to get our attention!
2) Everybody hates Umps, but they may make you money!
This is a part of the game that hardly any bettors look at yet it can be extremely profitable!
Certain plate umpires will have a tendency to be involved in more games that go either over or under the total due to how they call balls or strikes.
Some have tighter than usual zones or vice versa – pay attention to the Over / Under records that each umpire holds.
OK – that's it for now. We get excited to write about baseball betting, but we do not want to overwhelm you quite yet 🙂 You can expect future articles from us showing you more tips on how to beat your poker during the baseball season.